By Scott Scofield
Welcome to Atlanta where the swimmers swim. Where practice doesn’t end until the lights dim.
2016 Men’s NCAA Championships Day 1
800 Freestyle Relay
The first session of the men’s 2016 NCAA Championships will feature the new event schedule. The 800 freestyle relay moves from its old end-of-Friday night session to Wednesday night. This should provide for an overall better quality race than in previous years because the swimmers will be fresh on the first night of competition. Southern California comes into the race as the 2015 champions, but they lost senior Cristian Quintero to graduation and Dylan Carter to a redshirt year. They will return Michael Domagala and their anchor swimmer Reed Malone. Malone split 1:31.94 on this relay at Pac-12 champs and split 1:31.59 when he anchored this relay at the 2015 championships. Southern California will rely heavily on Malone if they want to finish in first again. The top seeded relay coming into the meet will be North Carolina State. N.C. State finished as runners up in this relay just one year ago. They will return three swimmers to this relay, and only lose their graduating senior David Williams. Simonas Bilis will look to avenge last year’s second place finish with help from Ryan Held, and Soren Dahl. Freshman Justin Ress will be replacing David Williams as NC State’s fourth swimmer. N.C. State will be the team to beat as they will compete with three swimmers who have swum 1:32 in the 200 free individually.
The most significant change to the format of when this relay will be swum will surely help the teams competing for the team title the most. Texas (8th last year), California (6th last year), Michigan (4th last year), and Florida (7th last year), should all be able to benefit the most from this change since all four of these schools had one or two swimmers finish in the top 16 in the 200 freestyle individually.
2016 Top 5 800 Freestyle Relay Teams:
1) NC State 6:12.76
2) Florida 6:13.64
3) Louisville 6:14.96
4) Michigan 6:15.04
5) Texas 6:15.48
Top 8 predictions:
NC State, Texas, Michigan, Florida, Indiana, California, Louisville, and Auburn.
With three swimmers at 1:32 from a flat start, N.C. State will be too much to handle. I see the biggest improvement coming from Texas as they look to repeat on last year’s NCAA Championship, and it remains to be seen how much they have actually rested for their in season times.
2016 Men’s NCAA Championships Day 2
200 Freestyle Relay
Texas returns as the 2015 NCAA champions in this event, but that was only because N.C. State jumped early one year ago. N.C. State will be looking to correct that mistake this year and try to stake their claim as the fastest sprint freestyle relay team in the nation. The problem is that Texas has incredible depth in the 50 yard freestyle and will be able to mix and match swimmers that could potentially break the 1:15.00 barrier, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished at this meet since 2009.
I predict that Texas will go with Matt Ellis (19.11), Joseph Schooling (19.08), Tate Jackson (18.78), and Brett Ringgold (18.71) in prelims. Their combination of times which would add up to 1:15.68, good enough to have won this event last year. But, in finals, I will predict that Texas will go with Ellis (19.11), Jack Conger (18.52), Ringgold (18.71), and John Murray (18.64) -- which would add up to a finals time of 1:14.98. That would also be a new American Record. The NCAA, US Open, and Championship record remains at 1:14.08 by Auburn in 2009. We shall see if Texas or NC State will eclipse that time at this year’s meet.
2016 Top 5 200 Freestyle Relay Teams:
1) NC State 1:15.65
2) Florida 1:16.46
3) Auburn 1:16.63
4) Alabama 1:16.82
5) Indiana 1:16.93
Top 8 predictions:
Texas, NC State, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, California, and Missouri.
500 Freestyle
Clark Smith returns as the defending champion in the 500 freestyle. It was an incredible year for Smith in 2015 as he went from a swimmer who didn’t qualify for the meet in 2014 to the eventual champion. This year, Smith enters the meet as the top qualifier and edging ever closer to the U.S. Open, American, and Championship record. The NCAA and Championship record is a 4:08.60 held by Peter Vanderkaay which was set in 2006. The American and US Open record is also held by Vanderkaay’s time of 4:08.54 which was set in 2008. Smith will surely be looking to take those records down. The big question will be if anyone will be able to step up to match him. Southern Cal’s Reed Malone will surely be gunning for that number one spot after having a breakout summer in which he finished third in the 400 meter freestyle at the World University Games. Malone who has shown to finish races with great back-half speed will have to match Smith’s early pace if he wants a chance at taking the title in the 500 free.
2016 Top 5 500 Freestyle Times:
1) Clark Smith 4:08.82
2) Reed Malone 4:11.80
3) Townley Haas 4:12.63
4) Ahmed Mahmoud 4:12.78
5) Anders Nielsen 4:12.83
Top 8 predictions:
Smith, Malone, Haas, Neilsen, D’Arrigo, Mahmoud, Hutchins, Lewis.
200 Individual Medley
Texas’s Will Licon enters the meet as the sixth fastest 200 IMer in the field, but returns to the meet as the runner-up to last year’s champion David Nolan. Nolan, who has since graduated and moved on to the professional ranks of the swimming world leaves the door open for Licon to win his first 200 IM title. In an event where only three competitors achieved the A standard, the question arises as to will anyone be able to challenge Licon for the title. California’s Josh Prenot, last year’s third place finisher will likely push to challenge Licon. Both Prenot and Licon feature great back half parts to their races in this event, but Licon has been known to work the front half faster than Prenot as shown at last year’s championship with Licon posted a 47.0 to Prenot’s 48.0 at the 100 mark. Also likely to be in the mix to challenge for the title will be Auburn’s Joe Patching. He posted a 46.9 split at the 100 mark at SECs this year using a strong backstroke leg.
2016 Top 5 200 IM Times:
1) Joe Patching 1:42.21
2) Brandon Fiala 1:42.26
3) Soeren Dahl NC State 1:42.50
4) Jan Switkowski 1:42.55
5) Mark Szaranek 1:42.64
Top 8 predictions:
Licon, Patching, Prenot, Murphy, Fiala, Bosch, Bentz, Harty.
50 Freestyle
A year after coming within .01 of the American Record in the 50 freestyle, Florida’s Caeleb Dressel returns as the current American record holder after demolishing Nathan Adrian’s time at the SEC championships. Dressel’s 18.23 entry time borders on the realm of insanity of what is humanly possible in the world of swimming. Dressel even went on to state that he was not fully shaved or tapered for that swim. If so, then Dressel shouldn’t have a problem taking the title in the 50 free for the second year in a row. The battle will be for who will finish second. All signs currently point to Alabama’s Kristian Gkolomeev, who swam an 18.74 at last year’s championship. While Gkolomeev has yet to reach that time this year, it could mean he’s ready to peak when it matter most. Look for NC State’s Simonas Bilis and Michigan’s Paul Powers to contest Gkolomeev for that second spot.
2016 Top 5 50 Free times:
1) Caeleb Dressel 18.23
2) Paul Powers 18.85
3) Ryan Held 18.92
4) Simonas Bilis 18.94
5) Dillon Virva 19.09
Top 8 Predictions:
Dressel, Gkolomeev, Bilis, Murray, Powers, Chadwick, Darmody, Holoda.
One-Meter Diving
This event has been ravaged by Olympic training and expired eligibility. Only three divers –the sixth through eighth place finishers -- remain from last year’s final: Cory Bowersox of Texas, Briadam Herrera of Miami and Rafael Quintero of Arizona. Having said that, most the consolation field does return meaning they will look to not only move up but have a legitimate chance at winning the event. Tennessee’s Mauricio Robles Rodriguez has been on a roll in 2016, having won both the SEC and Zone B titles fairly easily. Last year’s 10th-place finisher also brings the highest zone score in the country into Atlanta. His biggest obstacle will likely come from Arizona’s Quintero. Quintero skipped PAC-12’s but did a number on the Zone E field a few weeks ago. Texas returns not only the highest retutning finisher in Bowersox but also last year’s consol winner in Mark Anderson. Those two will team with Sean O’Brien to make Texas as dominant in the diving well as they likely will be in the pool. Despite the strength of that trio, it was Texas A&M freshman Sam Thornton who walked away with the Zone D title. Other divers to keep an eye on will be Zhipeng Zeng of Ohio State, the Zone B winner and Josiah Purss of Utah, the Zone E runner-up to Quintero.
The Pick: Rafael Quintero, Arizona. I expect a knock-down, drag-out battle between Robles-Rodriguez and Quintero for the top spot. You might as well flip a coin trying to pick between the two here.
Diver to Watch: Zhipeng Zeng, Ohio State. Zeng hasn’t lost a big meet all spring after rolling to wins at both Big Ten’s and an always solid Zone C meet. Not only will he make the big boy final, but he’s got as good a shot as anyone to break up the Robles-Rodriguez/Quintero free-for-all.
400 Medley Relay
Texas returns three of the four swimmers from their 2015 first place winning 400 medley relay. They will replace Kip Darmody with John Shebat. The other three members, Will Licon, Joseph Schooling, and Jack Conger will look to replicate last year’s performance and claim the top spot. Texas enters the meet as the second seed where they posted a 3:04.64 at the Big 12 championships, a time most likely achieved while on minimal taper. Texas will surely look to beat the time they went at last year’s championships (3:01.23), where they set a NCAA and US Open record. California, which set an American record in this relay last year when they finished second to Texas, returns the top backstroker in the nation in Ryan Murphy and their fly leg in Justin Lynch. They will replace their breaststroker Chuck Katis, with Connor Hoppe. The biggest question mark as to how this relay will perform will rest on the freestyle leg. When California posted their fastest time of the season, they used Longyuan Gutierrez to swim the anchor leg. Will California do the same at NCAAs or will they use Tyler Messerschmidt? Messerschmidt, who failed to qualify for the meet in any individual events, could be a factor on this relay if he is able to swim times that he has done in the past.
2016 Top 5 400 Medley Relay Times:
1) Florida 3:03.86
2) Texas 3:04.64
3) California 3:04.88
4) Louisville 3:04.90
5) Auburn 3:05.44
Top 8 Predictions:
Texas, Florida, California, Alabama, Auburn, Louisville, Missouri, Michigan.