By Scott Scofield
1650 Freestyle
Texas’s Clark Smith switches from swimming the 200 fly the year before to the 1650 free at this year’s championships. It was probably a good decision since he enters the meet as the top seed with a time of 14:31.29 that also ranked him as the 11th fastest performer ever in the event. Not to be out done by Smith’s feat is Michigan’s PJ Ransford. Ransford was the runner up in this event last year. His time from last year (14:34.36) also put him on the list of all time performers coming in at 16th. Expect these two to battle it out as both like to set a fast pace early.
2016 Top 5 1650 Freestyle Times:
1) Clark Smith 14:31.29
2) Ahmed Mahmoud 14:35.49
3) PJ Ransford 14:36.61
4) Matthew Hutchins 14:38.14
5) Christopher Swanson 14:40.18
Top 8 Predictions:
Smith, Ransford, Mahmoud, Haas, Hutchins, Ipsen, Kiraly, Burch.
200 Backstroke
California’s Ryan Murphy set the NCAA, American, and US Open Records in this event at last year’s championships. Like in the 100 back, the question remains the same. Can Murphy eclipse last year’s performances? In the NCAA SCY format, the 200 back has become Murphy’s signature event. In 2014, he won the event by 1.3 seconds. In 2015, he won by 2.43 seconds. Expect Murphy to once again assert his dominance in this event for the 3rd year in a row. The race will be for 2nd place. Tennessee’s Sean Lehane, last year’s runner up, will be looking for a podium spot for the 2nd year in a row. Expect Lehane to be there again this year. Louisville’s Grigory Tarasevich comes into the meet as the 4th seed, but has had his best year to date swimming for the Louisville Cardinals. I expect Tarasevich to place 3rd here.
2016 Top 5 200 Backstroke Times:
1) Ryan Murphy 1:38.35
2) Jacob Pebley 1:38.86
3) Grigory Tarasevich 1:39.28
4) Hennessey Stuart 1:39.58
5) Patrick Mulcare 1:39.64
Top 8 Predictions:
Murphy, Lehane, Tarasevich, Taylor, Stuart, Harty, Patching, Pebley.
100 Freestyle
Alabama’s Kristian Gkolomeev returns to the championships as the defending champion in the 100 freestyle. But, as Gkolomeev was a witness to, Florida’s Caeleb Dressel put his name in the history books at the SEC conference championships when he posted a 41.07 and a new American Record. One could assume that Gkolomeev wasn’t fully rested or shaved for SECs, but Dressel has also claimed have more to give. This should be another race to watch at this year’s meet. I am going to go with NC State’s Simonas Bilis as the runner up to Dressel when all hands have touched the wall. I believe Bilis will use the power of the diamond to help propel his Wolfpack team and he will perform well here. While Bilis does have unexplained powers, so does Texas’s Brett “Batman” Ringgold. Look for Ringgold to place in the top 3 here.
2016 Top 5 100 Freestyle Times:
1) Caeleb Dressel 41.07
2) Ryan Held 41.69
3) Simonas Bilis 41.76
4) Michael Chadwick 41.89
5) Brett Ringgold 42.04
Top 8 Predictions:
Dressel, Bilis, Ringgold, Murray, Held, Gkolomeev, Chadwick, Pieroni.
200 Breaststroke
At last year’s championships, we saw one of the greatest 200 breaststroke races in recent history. Texas’s Will Licon upset the defending champion Kevin Cordes. This year, Licon comes into the meet as the top seed and looking to repeat on last year’s victory. Contenders to push Licon will surely come from California’s Josh Prenot and Alabama’s Anton McKee.
2016 Top 5 200 Breaststroke Times:
1) Will Licon 1:50.47
2) Josh Prenot 1:51.75
3) Marat Amaltdinov 1:52.67
4) Cody Taylor 1:52.70
5) Brandon Fiala 1:52.87
Top 8 Predictions:
Licon, Prenot, Wich-Glasen, McKee, Taylor, Fiala, Claverie, Schwingenschlogl.
200 Butterfly
In 2013, Michigan’s Dylan Bosch placed 3rd in the 200 fly. In 2014, Bosch finished 1st and established a new NCAA and US Open Record. In 2015, Texas’s Jack Conger switched from swimming the 200 backstroke to the 200 butterfly and his teammate Joseph Schooling entered his first year in college. Both Schooling and Conger would end up bettering Bosch in this event with Schooling out-touching Conger at the finish in 2015. In 2016, we shall see another epic battle between these three flyers. Look for all three swimmers to push the pace early. Based on the LCM 200 fly Conger put up this summer at Nationals, I am picking him for the win here.
2016 Top 5 200 Butterfly Times:
1) Joseph Schooling 1:40.48
2) Jack Conger 1:40.57
3) Hugo Morris 1:40.59
4) Pace Clark 1:40.66
5) Dylan Bosch 1:40.86
Top 8 Predictions:
Conger, Schooling, Bosch, Switkowski, McCurdy, Morris, Wright, Seliskar.
Platform Diving
This will be the only diving event at the championships to return a medalist from a season ago. Minnesota’s Matt Barnard grabbed bronze behind a pair of Hoosier state divers in Steele Johnson of Purdue and James Connor of Indiana. Barnard will be amply tested by last year’s fourth place finisher, Rafael Quintero of Arizona. Quintero mauled the Zone E field by more than 100 points, easily posting the highest zone score in the country. Ohio State’s Zhipeng Zeng, the second-highest zone scorer in the country, cruised to a win in the usually tough Zone C meet. Much like Zeng, Mark Anderson of Texas will be a huge threat on all three boards. Anderson won the Zone D meet easily as well, grabbing nearly a 50-point win. Dylan Grisell of Florida State held off a strong challenge from Tanner Wilfong of The U to win the Zone B title. Those two could easily both qualify for the big boy final.
The Pick: Rafael Quintero, Arizona. Quintero seems to be diving extremely well on the tower right now. It’s likely going to take a big effort from Anderson or Zeng to knock him off.
Diver to Watch: Tyler Henschel, Texas A&M. Henschel quietly finished second to Anderson at the Zone D meet but his score there would very comfortably place him among the top eight nationally.
400 Free Relay
The culmination of racing at this year’s championship will finalize itself into one race. One year ago, NC State had 50 yards to go to claim the victory in this race. They were denied that victory by Southern Cal’s Dylan Carter. As stated in the 800 freestyle relay, Carter along with several other of his Southern Cal teammates won’t be competing at this year’s championship. That leaves the door open for NC State to claim the top spot if they are able. Every stat on paper says that they should. They are entered into the meet as the top seed and return 3 of the 4 swimmers from last year’s relay. But, the Texas Longhorns will be looking to capitalize on a great weekend of swimmers by finishing strong. Even though Jack Conger and Joseph Schooling will have just completed their 200 fly race before this relay, the Texas team’s depth at the 100 freestyle will allow them to interchange swimmers between prelims and finals which should give them an advantage compared to other teams. Look for the Horns to upset NC State here in this relay.
2016 Top 5 400 Freestyle Relay Times:
1) NC State 2:48.52
2) Auburn 2:48.64
3) Texas 2:50.29
4) Florida 2:50.30
5) Indiana 2:50.51
Top 8 Predictions:
Texas, NC State, Auburn, Florida, Indiana, California, Alabama, Georgia.