Heating Up ‘Hot’lanta - Day 3 NCAA Women’s DI Preview
By Chris Harrell
400 Individual Medley – Stanford looks to be sitting pretty here thanks to freshman Ella Eastin. Eastin’s PAC-12 winning time of 3:59.30 is easily the fastest time in this event since former Cardinal Maya DiRado won the NCAA meet in 3:58.12 two years ago. Only one of the top four swimmers in this race a season ago will swim at this year’s meet – but she won’t be swimming in this race. Georgia senior Hali Flickinger, last year’s silver medalist, was less than three-tenths away from an NCAA title in 2015 but has switched to the 200 freestyle this year. The next-highest returning finisher is Madisyn Cox of Texas (4:04.67; fourth nationally) who grabbed fifth a season ago. With the other three returning 2015 finalists ranking 16th or lower, there appears to be much room available for other young ladies to earn championship spots. Texas A&M is hoping to fill that void. An impressive 1-2-3 finish in this event at SEC’s was arguably the point in which the Aggies let it be known that there was a new sheriff in town in one of the strongest conferences in the country. Perhaps even more impressive is that all three are underclassmen. Sophomore Bethany Galat (4:04.06, third), freshman Sydney Pickrem (4:05.32, fifth) and sophomore Lisa Bratton (4:05.44, 6th) may not be the threats that Eastin is to win the title but the trio, who all rank in the top six nationally, assuredly will rack up a bunch more points in this event than they did a season ago when Sarah Henry took home the NCAA title. Georgia’s Emily Cameron (4:05.91) and Cal’s Kelly Naze (4:06.56) earned second and third in consols a year ago and rank in the top eight now. They have nearly as good as shot as anyone be championship finalists this time around.
The Pick: Ella Eastin, Stanford. Not only will the Stanford freshman have to stumble, but another swimmer will have to strongly ascend from the pack for there to be any chance of anyone but Eastin to take home the win. (Last year’s pick: Hali Flickinger, Georgia; last year’s champ: Sarah Henry, Texas A&M).
Swimmer to Watch: Lindsey Clary, Ohio State. The Big Ten champ trounced the field at her conference meet and her time of 4:03.64 is the only one within 4.5 seconds of Eastin. Entering Atlanta, no one is better positioned to take down Eastin than Clary.
100 Butterfly – This should be one of the more highly anticipated match-ups of the meet with defending champion and NCAA record holder Kelsi Worrell of Louisville (50.06) facing off against a white-hot Farida Osman of Cal (50.53). It will be interesting to see how the 50 free may or may not affect performance here since the two standouts will face off in the same event on Thursday as well. The only other returning championship finalists from a season ago are USC senior Kendyl Stewart (51.17) and Florida senior Natalie Hinds (51.87). Much like the 400 IM, there is plenty of room for fresh faces to make an impact. North Carolina’s Hellen Moffitt (50.67) has improved by leaps and bounds since tieing for last in consols a season ago. Texas A&M junior Sarah Gibson (50.99) has literally come from out of nowhere in this event. The SEC champion didn’t even swim the 100 fly at NCAA’s in 2015; she finished 27th in the 200 free. Look for her former SEC champion teammate, Beryl Gastaldello (51.46), and Cal’s Noemie Thomas (51.15) to be particularly sharp after each missed out on finals last season by one-tenth of a second or less. It should be interesting to see how Tennessee freshman Madeline Banic (51.19) responds in her first NCAA meet while Stanford’s Janet Hu (51.27) should be more than ready to take her game to the next level after an 11th-place finish a season ago.
The Pick: Kelsi Worrell, Louisville. To be the champ, you’ve got to beat the champ. That’s an extremely tall order in this race. (Last year’s pick: Kelsi Worrell, Louisville; last year’s champ: Worrell).
Swimmer to Watch: Rachel Bootsma, California. The 100 fly has been a very fickle event for Bootsma (51.64). After taking home silver as a freshman, Bootsma has yet to return to the ‘A’ final since. Her consol win last year was a huge improvement after not even making it out of prelims in 2014. While the event has gotten much faster at the top since her freshman season, Bootsma is as much of a threat as anyone to be a top five swimmer.
200 Freestyle— This event looks absolutely nothing like it did a season ago with Missy turning pro, Simone prepping for the Olympics and Cierra Runge sitting out after transferring out of Cal. What we do have is an ever-improving Lia Neal of Stanford (1:42.50) who will be looking to earn her first NCAA 200 free title. After somehow not making the big girl final as a freshman, Neal did throw down a 1:42.65 to grab third last year as a sophomore. With three of the big guns out of the way, her attention turns to an unlikely group of swimmers. The 200 free is clearly the ‘weakest’ of Leah Smith’s (1:42.97) three individual events – so weak that she ranks third nationally. Georgia’s Hali Flickinger (1:43.19) didn’t swim this event at 2015 NCAA’s or 2016 SEC’s but her leadoff on the Bulldog 800 free relay instantly makes her a major medal threat. The other three young ladies in the top six, Mallory Comerford of Louisville (1:42.79), Kirsten Vose of USC (1:43.20) and Siobhan Haughey of Michigan (1:43.51) are all freshmen swimming in their first NCAA meet. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an odd mix of top swimmers in an NCAA race before.
The Pick: Lia Neal, Stanford. Neal is literally the only 200 free specialist ranking among the top six that has swam at this meet before…and she ranks first. It would be criminal to choose anyone else. (Last year’s pick: Missy Franklin, California; last year’s champ: Franklin).
Swimmer to Watch: Brittany MacLean, Georgia. It’s kind of odd that a conference champion, especially one of the SEC variety, isn’t even the highest ranked swimmer on her own team in this race. Having said that, MacLean (1:43.64) is as experienced a 200 freestyler as any in the entire field. She also has a top four NCAA finish to her credit WITH Neal and Missy in the field. She may or may not be 100% but she still ranks eighth nationally. Sleep on her at your own peril.
100 Breaststroke – Much like the 200 free, the 100 breast will have a considerably different look this season. Gone are six of last year’s eight championship finalists but that by no means translates to any sort of drop-off. Defending champion Sarah Haase of Stanford (58.02) will have her hands full against Indiana freshman Lillia King who exploded for a near-NCAA record of 57.35 in the Big Ten final. Last year’s fourth place finisher, Laura Simon of Virginia, is in prime position to be a contender once again, having posted a time of 58.73 in the ACC final. Having said that, Simon was actually the ACC runner-up to Louisville junior Andrea Cottrell (58.26). Cottrell ranks behind only King and Haase nationally. Missouri junior Katharine Ross (58.38) won the SEC meet handily and ranks fourth in the country. Another Indiana freshman, Miranda Tucker, dropped a 58.58 in the Big Ten final to rank fifth nationally. This could end up being a very big event for the Hoosiers.
The Pick: Lillia King, Indiana. Stanford’s Haase has a daunting task in front of her after King’s Big Ten explosion but Stanford does always have their girls more than ready to compete at the NCAA meet. That said, it’s impossible to look past the fact that King has produced multiple sub-58 second performances throughout the season. I think it’s more likely we see the NCAA record go down than King not finish first. (Last year’s pick: Emma Reaney, Notre Dame; last year’s champ: Sarah Haase, Stanford).
Swimmer to Watch: Abby Duncan, Missouri. While Duncan finished in a tie for third at SEC’s in 59.68 behind her teammate Ross and Alabama’s Bridget Blood, it wasn’t close to her best effort this season. Duncan dropped a 58.83 at the Tennessee Invite back in November and is easily the Tigers’ best 200 breaststroker this season. If she can get back to her November form, she will be a threat to make the championship final.
100 Backstroke – California placed three women in the championship final a season ago and might easily do so again. The difference is only one of those three is the same: defending champion Rachel Bootsma (50.76, fourth nationally). Cal freshman Amy Bilquist leads the country in this race thanks to a best time of 50.50 during PAC-12 prelims however it was Stanford sophomore Aly Howe (50.71) who ended up claiming the conference crown while Bootsma was second. Another Cal freshman, Kathleen Baker, nabbed fourth in that race in 51.05 while Stanford’s Janet Hu was fifth (51.14). That PAC-12 event produced an impressive five of the top eight times in the country. Leading the list of those looking to break up all that west coast dominance will be last year’s NCAA runner-up Courtney Bartholomew of Virginia. The ACC champ’s best time of 50.55 came leading off the Cavalier’s conference champion 400 medley relay. The SEC will also have a say in things with two swimmers ranking among the top six in the country. Georgia’s Olivia Smoliga, who finished tied for fifth a season ago, won the SEC crown in a season best of 50.80. Kira Toussaint is a returning championship finalist but is doing so with a new team. Toussaint took eighth in this race in Greensboro for Florida Gulf Coast but now looks rack up big points for Tennessee. Toussaint’s SEC prelim time of 50.85 ranks her sixth nationally.
The Pick: Rachel Bootsma, California. While Bartholomew came in a clear favorite last season, it was Bootsma who stole the show and came within a whisper of Natalie Coughlin’s NCAA record. With the field being fairly compacted and Bootsma being in the thick of it, it is hard to pick against the two-time champ. (Last year’s pick: Courtney Bartholomew, Virginia; last year’s champ: Rachel Bootsma, California).
Swimmer to Watch: Ally Howe, Stanford. For the second year in a row, Howe lands in this spot. Having now had a full NCAA cycle under her belt and a defeat of Bootsma to her credit in an epicly fast PAC-12 final last month, Howe could easily be the woman to beat.
Three-Meter Diving – Three of the top four finishers from 2015 return including champion Yu Zhou of Minnesota and silver medalist Pei Lin of Miami (OH). The defending champ is coming in hot with comfortable wins at both Big Ten’s and the Zone D meet. Lin did dirty, dirty things to the Zone C field last weekend, winning by an incredible 135.35 points. UCLA’s Maria Polyakova, the fourth place finisher in Greensboro, had a completely head-scratching 14th-place finish at PAC-12’s but rebounded with a runner-up finish at the Zone E meet. Zone E champ Sharae Zheng of Nevada beat a couple of tough customers for that title in Polyakova and teammate Krysta Palmer, who was 10th in Greensboro. Much like Polyakova, Texas A&M’s Madison Hudkins had a rough time at her conference meet but rebounded to take second at the Zone D meet behind Zhou. Much like the one-meter, the Zone B meet was the Kahlia Warner-Olivia Ball show. The Florida and Georgia divers could have big impacts on their team’s fortunes in Atlanta. Addison Walkowiak of Rutgers, the sixth-place finisher at Big Ten’s, enters NCAA’s with the Zone A title on her resume.
The Pick: Yu Zhou, Minnesota. Zhou has not lost once on the three-meter at conference, zones or NCAA’s in the last two years. Don’t expect her to start now. (Last year’s pick: Pei Lin, Miami (OH); last year’s champ: Yu Zhou, Minnesota).
Divers to Watch: Gracia Leydon-Mahoney and Alexandra Clay, Stanford. The PAC-12 champion and runner-up had somewhat of a rough go of it at the Zone E meet (fourth and ninth, respectively). If they can get it turned back in the right direction, it could benefit the Cardinal’s team title chances greatly.
200 Medley Relay – California entered this race a season ago as an extremely slim favorite. They ended up winning the title somewhat handily over Louisville. Much more of a story however was crosstown rival Stanford missing out on the big girl final due to a lackluster prelim effort….then painfully swimming a faster consol final time than the Golden Bears did in the championship heat. This time around, the Cardinal (1:34.15) is not only a clear favorite but have to be eagerly anticipating the opportunity to make amends for their Friday morning misfire in Greensboro. The returning silver medalist Louisville Cardinals (1:35.43) sit in the familiar number two spot, a mere .02 ahead of the defending champions. Virginia (1:35.57) is faster than a season ago and could easily nab shotgun. Big Ten Champion Indiana (1:35.73), SEC champ Tennessee (1:35.86) and PAC-12 bronze medalist USC (1:35.90) round out the list of teams under 1:36. Each of them have a puncher’s chance of taking home silver.
The Pick: Stanford. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Look for Stanford to come out with a vengeance to finish off day two. (Last year’s pick: Stanford; last year’s champ: California).
Relay to Watch: Texas. The Longhorns (1:36.32; 10th) don’t exactly have to ‘turn up’ quite like most of the other heavy hitters in this race do at their conference championships. I’m betting we haven’t seen their best punch. Don’t be surprised to not only see them in the big girl final, but in there swinging in top five territory.