By Scott Scofield and Chris Harrell
The NCAA Division I Men's Swimming and Diving Championships will head to Iowa City, Iowa, for the first time in championship history and back to the state of Iowa for the first time since 1971, when the Championships were held at Iowa State University in Ames.
The championship that year was won by Doc Counsilman's Indiana dynasty with Southern California as the runner up. Things old become new again as this year’s USC squad will be in the thick of the championship race as will recent winners California and Texas.
Texas will be looking for their 11th overall team title and their first since 2010 while California, winners of the last three in the past four years, will be looking for their sixth overall title.
Time to get to the who and the how:
Day 1:
200 Free Relay -
The top three teams in the country here aren't California or Texas. Instead they are North Carolina State, Alabama and Auburn. But, have we really seen a fully rested California and Texas relay yet? At last year’s meet, we didn't even get to see North Carolina State record an actual time because of a disqualification in prelims. They return three members from last year’s relay, and replace Jonathan Boffa (split 18.89 at last year’s ACC champs) with freshman Ryan Held (split 18.96 at this year’s ACC champs). Cal also returns three relay members from last year’s championship winning relay. But, the big difference from last year is the loss of Tony Cox (split 18.81 last year) and the addition of Fabio Giomondi (19.81 lead-off at Pac-12s). Giomondi was faster in his individual 50 free at Pac-12s which will help California move up from their fourth ranked time, but more importantly, more rest for Tyler Messerschmidt, Ryan Murphy, and Seth Stubblefield will only make California that much faster. Texas, the runner up last year in this event, returns all four swimmers from last year’s relay. The question is will the same four from last year swim it again this year? Last year it was Matt Ellis (19.19), John Murray (18.36), Tripp Cooper (19.21), and Kip Darmody (18.78) laying down impressive splits. Texas has the option of either Jack Conger (19.43 individually) or Brett Ringgold (19.54 individually) this time around. Both of these swimmers have been faster than Cooper individually this year, but, I would expect Ringgold to be added in place of Cooper as Conger will be needed to help Texas on the other relays. Last year Texas went into the meet with a 1:17.41 and finished with a 1:15.53. Look for them to improve drastically on their 1:16.72 seed time of this year.
Top 8 Prediction: Texas, NC State, California, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, USC.
500 Freestyle -
Southern California's Cristian Quintero returns to the championships as the defending champion in this event, but he will have to battle several swimmers who want to wrestle his title away. Leading the pack to challenge Quintero will be Florida's Mitch D'Arrigo. The Italian swimmer posted the nation's leading time of 4:10.77 at SEC’s and was sixth in this event last year. Also competing for the first place position will be another Florida Gator, Dan Wallace. The runner-up last year to Quintero, Wallace most likely wasn't fully rested at SEC’s where he swam a time of 4:13.61. Expect returning NCAA finalist Matias Koski of Georgia, fourth in this event last year, to also be in the running as well as USC’s Reed Malone, who was 14th last year, to be in the mix. Newcomers to this race who will be looking to make a difference will be Anton Ipsen of North Carolina State and Clark Smith from Texas. Ipsen currently ranks seventh in the nation with a time of 4:13.87 and Smith ranks fifth with a time of 4:13.32. Ipsen has been swimming fast all year long so it will be interesting to see how he performs here at the highest level, but Clark Smith hasn't matched his best time since December so expect him to drop for sure.
Swimmers to watch for in the team race: California's Adam Hinshaw (seeded 38th), Long Gutierrez (seeded 44th), and Trent Williams (seeded 48th) vs Texas' Jonathan Roberts (seeded 15th), Clay Youngquist (seeded 22nd), and Sam Lewis (seeded 28th). Can California put any swimmers into finals? Can Texas make their mark in the first individual event of the day with multiple second swims? Lewis finished ninth in prelims in 2014 which helped California in the long run on their way to the title. Can he do it again this year?
Prediction: Quintero, Koski, Wallace, D'Arrigo, Malone, Nielsen, Ipsen, Smith.
Darkhorse: Jordan Wilimovsky of Northwestern. The distance specialist could make a nice move in the 500 free on the first day of the meet.
200 IM -
Stanford's David Nolan, fresh off his American record of 1:40.07 at Pac-12s, looks to reclaim his title in the 200 IM. As a freshman he placed third in this event then as a sophomore he won it. Last year, as a junior he was third again behind Marcin Cieslak of Florida, and Chase Kalisz of Georgia. Kalisz will return this year to challenge Nolan. Even as the eighth seed, Kalisz (1:43.10) will be able to push Nolan, although I don't believe he will defeat him this time around. Will Licon of Texas also looks to be in contention. As mentioned above, it is unclear how much rest was given to the Texas swimmers and Licon posted a fast 1:41.67 at Big 12’s to put him second going into the meet behind Nolan. Look for Josh Prenot of California (1:41.79), and Dylan Bosch of Michigan (1:41.93) all to be in the mix battling for top spots. Ryan Murphy of California (1:42.94) will be looking to make an impact for his team in this event. Murphy's former club teammate Joseph Schooling (1:42.99), now swimming for Texas, will also be looking to help the rival Longhorns’ cause.
Prediction: Nolan, Kalisz, Licon, Bosch, Prenot, Schooling, Murphy, Solaeche-Gomez.
Darkhorse: Nicholas Fink, Georgia. I've mentioned above about how much rest Kalisz had at SEC’s. Look for Fink to have a drop in this event.
50 Free –
The 50 free 2014 co-champions both return to settle their score at the championships in 2015. On one side you have Bradley Tandy of Arizona who finished with a time of 18.95 last year. On the other you have Alabama's Kristian Gkolomeev who clocked the exact same time. Tandy, a South African, features one of the most explosive starts the sport has ever seen. The question is will it be enough to hold off Gkolomeev, whose speed in this event has been unmatched by any other swimmer this year? Gkolomeev enters with the nation's leading time of 18.64. The next closest competitor is a freshman from Florida named Caeleb Dressel. Dressel enters the stage with enough hype of his own as the fastest American swimmer ever in the 17-18 age group. His entry time of 18.89 was established at SEC’s just a couple of weeks ago, eclipsing his best time of 18.91 from December of 2013. Entering the production as another swimmer to crack the 19 barrier is North Carolina State's Simonas Bilis (18.98). After winning the consolation final at years NCAA's, Bilis looks to make a larger impact this year. But, don't forget about Seth Stubblefield from California. He comes into the meet seeded with a 19.32, but he remains the only remaining swimmer entered who has also been under the 19 barrier with his 18.97 from prelims at last year’s championships. Speaking of last year’s championships, Texas was the only school to put two swimmers into the big boy final. Both of those swimmers return to the meet this year as John Murray comes in seeded 15th with a 19.37 while Matthew Ellis is 19th with a 19.41. Texas will depend on these two swims heavily for the team race. If you look at the drops both of these swimmers had at last year's championships it shouldn't be farfetched to believe that they will be hot again this year.
Prediction: Gkolomeev, Stubblefield, Dressel, Murray, Tandy, Bilis, Ellis, Condorelli.
Darkhorse: Tyler Messerschmidt of California. Boasting a best time of 19.16 at last year’s NCAA’s, look for Messerschmidt to make another impact this year for his Cal Bears.
One-Meter Diving –
Last year’s champion (and diver of the meet) returns but with a twist. Instead of donning the burnt orange of Texas, sophomore Michael Hixon will be competing for the Indiana Hoosiers. Hixon will have another epic battle with Stanford’s Kristian Ipsen. Ipsen, the 2013 one-meter champ, lost to Hixon by less than seven points a season ago and will be looking to go out on the short board by reclaiming his crown. Hixon’s former teammate, Cory Bowersox, was fifth a season ago and enters as the Zone D runner-up behind Clark Thomas of Missouri. Arizona’s Rafael Quintero was the Zone E runner-up behind Ipsen and is another returning big boy finalist having finished sixth in Austin. Miami (Fla.) junior Samuel Dorman is the fifth and final returning finalist from a season ago. Dorman won the Zone B title a few weeks ago and will be looking to improve on his seventh place finish in 2014. Pittsburgh’s Dominic Giordano is the fifth and final 2015 zone champion thanks to a victory in the Zone A meet.
The Pick: Kristian Ipsen, Stanford. Expect an incredibly tight battle between Ipsen and Hixon which is honestly too close to call. I’ll go with the senior exacting his revenge on the young jedi as he exits stage left.
Diver to Watch: Steele Johnson, Purdue. Not only was he the runner-up behind Hixon in one of the toughest zones in the country, he quite possibly has the best name in the history of NCAA men’s swimming and diving. Well played, Johnson family. Well played.
400 Medley Relay –
California came into the 2014 championships with a 3:05.95 and improved to a 3:02.66 to win the 400 medley relay. The only swimmer they lost from that 2014 relay is Marcin Tarcyznski. Tarcyznski swam the fly leg and Stubblefield swam freestyle. Look for Stubblefield to switch to fly this year and Messerschmidt to swim the anchor freestyle leg. Murphy and Katis again return for the Cal Bears as they are seeded fifth this year going into the meet. If they can repeat their time of last year, Cal should win this relay. This year’s top qualifier was Alabama (3:04.22) who topped top ten teams Florida (3:05.09) and Auburn (3:06.01) for this year’s SEC title. Florida, last year’s runner-up, has to replace half their relay from a year ago but don’t necessarily subtract anything from a talent standpoint, especially with Dressel on the anchor leg. White-hot USC enters the meet ranked second with a 3:04.80 and full intentions on improving from their fifth-place finish a season ago. Last year’s bronze medalist Texas (3:05.80) only has to replace their anchor and are already with a second of the time that locked them third up at home in 2014. Big Ten champ Michigan is the third and final team under 3:05 this season – a time considerably faster than their 3:07.61, seventh-place effort last season. Georgia also has a shot, returning 75 percent of their fourth place team from Austin
The Pick: California. I think the Bears fare just fine switching Stubblefield over and adding Messerschmidt on the end and I definitely don’t think we’ve seen remotely close to their best swim yet so far.
Relay to Watch: Georgia. The Dawgs may have only been fourth at SEC’s but I have feeling this veteran group finishes at least that high at the big dance as well.